In the U.S. presidential election, Donald Trump achieved an unprecedented victory. After Grover Cleveland in 1982, Trump has become the second president to return to power after a four-year gap. Trump’s historic victory has disproved the claim made by political analysts before the election, which predicted a tough competition between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. Out of 538 seats across 50 states, Trump secured 305 electoral votes, while Kamala Harris from the Democrats was limited to 226 seats (vote counting is still ongoing). America has become the second Western country after France where the election results have surprised everyone. In the seven swing states where Kamala Harris was said to have a stronghold, Trump achieved a clean sweep.

It should be noted that swing states are those that are traditionally neither in favor of the Democrats (Blue) nor the Republicans (Red), hence they are also called Purple states. The public mood in these states tends to be somewhat neutral. These seven states include Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, Georgia, Arizona, and North Carolina, which hold about one-fifth of America’s population. With 93 electoral seats, these states hold significant political influence.

Main reasons behind Trump’s victory…
Nationalism as an issue: In almost every other rally, Trump emphasized nationalism as an issue. He has always been vocal about the “America First” policy, stating that the American taxpayers’ money should not be spent on wars in other countries, but rather on strengthening their own economy.

The issue of illegal immigrants: Illegal immigration has always been a major issue in American elections. According to reports, around 15 million people live illegally in the U.S. Trump heavily criticized the Biden administration on this issue. During Trump’s last term, several strict measures were taken regarding illegal visas.

Religion as an issue: Similar to India, attempts were made to use religion to influence voters in the U.S. election. During a rally in North Carolina, Trump addressed pastors, assuring them that Christians would be protected if he came to power. For the 5 million Hindu population, Trump tweeted, “The brutal atrocities faced by the Hindu community in Bangladesh and globally are condemnable.” He also mentioned that such incidents wouldn’t have occurred under his administration, which had a notable impact on Indian-American voters, as seen in the election results.

Economy as a major issue: After the recession brought on by COVID-19, America’s GDP remained around 2.5% to 3%, but inflation continued to rise daily, leading to voter dissatisfaction with the rising cost of living.

Promise to abolish income tax: During election rallies, Trump promised voters that he would abolish income tax if he came to power and offset it by imposing tariffs on imported goods from other countries. Unlike in India, where leaders often retract their statements post-elections, this tradition is not common in American elections.

Delay in Kamala Harris’s candidacy: Just two months before the election, Democratic candidate Joe Biden declined to run, nominating his Vice President Kamala Harris for the presidency. Though Kamala Harris tried to distance herself from Biden’s mistakes and vowed to govern differently, voters remained unconvinced. Before Kamala entered the race, the contest seemed one-sided due to Biden’s losses in public debates and his advancing age, drawing voters towards Trump. Kamala’s candidacy improved the competition slightly, yet, surprisingly, despite being a female candidate, her support among Black, Latin, and Asian women declined. While Biden had received 57% of Black women’s votes in the 2020 election, Kamala managed only 54% in the latest results.

Impact of Trump’s victory on India:
Prime Minister Modi congratulated Donald Trump on his remarkable win over the phone. Modi shared the news on his X account, stating that he had a good conversation with his friend, Donald Trump. India expressed hope for further cooperation with the U.S. in technology, defense, energy, space, and other sectors.

Based on Trump’s previous term, India-U.S. relations are likely to improve in the coming days. From 2017 to 2021, several significant agreements were made between India and the U.S.

Economic benefits?
During Trump’s tenure, trade between India and the U.S. grew. Currently, the U.S. is India’s second-largest trade partner. The U.S. is also the largest importer of Indian goods. In 2023-2024, India imported $42.2 billion worth of goods from the U.S., while exporting $77.52 billion worth of goods to the U.S. Recently, Trump mentioned in an economic program that India, Brazil, and China are strict regarding tariffs. He referred to India as a major “abuser” in tariffs but praised Prime Minister Modi as a great person. During the election, Trump said that if he became president, he would increase tariffs on countries like China, India, and Brazil while abolishing income tax for Americans. If this happens, the rupee could fall to a lower level against the dollar.

If Trump, as he did in his previous term, imposes tariffs on Chinese imports, it may benefit Indian markets. Although Trump has called India a tariff abuser, he placed China in a stricter tariff category. During his last term, despite imposing oil export sanctions on Iran, he granted India an exemption. In the case of purchasing the S-400 missile system from Russia, Trump waived sanctions on India under the CAATSA law, although sanctions were imposed on China and Turkey. However, it should be noted that Trump ended India’s special trade status as well.

Will global issues be resolved with Trump’s victory?
During and before the election, Trump promised to end ongoing wars and bring peace if he became president. Recently, while addressing the American Jewish-Muslim community, Trump vowed to end the Israel-Hamas/Lebanon conflict if he came to power. He has previously stated on his podcast and in TV interviews that he would prevent American taxpayer money from being spent on foreign wars. Trump has always criticized the military and economic support given to Ukraine, believing that Ukraine has endured three years of war because of America’s unwavering support.

Strategic implications of Trump’s victory for India:
After Biden became president in 2021, India’s relations with Russia soured due to Russia’s increasing proximity to China, stemming from American sanctions. If Trump returns to power, it is likely that sanctions on Russia could be lifted. Notably, since COVID-19 and economic sanctions were imposed on Russia in 2020, trade between India and Russia has increased by 30%. After taking office in 2017, Trump revived the Quad group, which includes the U.S., Japan, India, and Australia.

The U.S. formed the Quad to strengthen its influence in the Indo-Pacific region and counter China’s expansionist ambitions. From India’s perspective, the Quad is vital given the growing friendship between China and Russia, as well as potential future crises that may require a country capable of countering China.

Key agreements during Trump’s last term:
Although Trump was known for his controversial comments on social media, particularly Twitter, for which he was banned, he went on to launch his own Truth Social application. On Twitter, he frequently exchanged nuclear war threats with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, but, paradoxically, he also facilitated peace agreements between countries on the ground. In 2020, Trump initiated the Abraham Accords, establishing normal relations between Israel and the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Morocco. After this agreement, the UAE became the third Arab country to recognize Israel.

Another significant agreement involved three rounds of talks with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un for nuclear disarmament, aiming to close nuclear plants and halt long-range missile tests. Although the outcomes were limited, the initiative provided an alternative to war by emphasizing dialogue-based solutions.

Economic losses due to war:
To date, the U.S. has provided nearly $113 billion in assistance to Ukraine in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The U.S. has also given Israel military assistance totaling $250 billion since 1959, including $23 billion in the past year alone. Donald Trump has consistently questioned the use of American taxpayers’ money on foreign conflicts, and as of October 7, 2023, Israel has spent $66 million in its war with Hamas/Lebanon.