Omar Abdullah predicts that J&K’s politics will go back to the NC, Congress, PDP, and BJP.

Political parties in Jammu and Kashmir are at high stakes as Phase 1 of the elections begins on September 18. Home Minister Amit Shah recently promised steps to restore statehood for the Union Territory, while Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge outlined five guarantees if the Congress-National Conference alliance comes to power.

High Voter Turnout And Seat Distribution

The 2024 Lok Sabha elections recorded a voter turnout of 58.46 percent, the highest in 35 years. Jammu now has 43 Assembly seats, up by six, while Kashmir has 47, up by one. The proportion of seats in Jammu has increased from 42.5 percent to 47.8 percent, while Kashmir’s share has slightly declined to 52.2 percent. The National Conference is contesting 51 of the 90 Assembly seats, while Congress will field candidates in 32 seats.

BJP Focuses On Jammu Region

The ruling BJP has higher chances of success in Hindu-majority Jammu, where it already controls 11 of 12 strong seats. For the 2024 elections, the BJP plans to contest 67 seats, leaving the rest for allies. The party is targeting newly reserved ST seats by appealing to Pahari voters but faces challenges from Gujjar and Bakerwal communities. Polarization in these regions is expected to be high.

The BJP has little influence in the Kashmir Valley and has never won a seat there in state elections. It also did not contest the 2024 general elections in the valley. The party’s strength is concentrated in Jammu, where it aims to maintain its 19 seats from the 2014 elections.

Congress And Regional Parties Eye Gains

Congress and the Jammu and Kashmir National Conference hold significant influence over Muslim-majority districts, including Doda, Poonch, Rajouri, Kishtwar, and Ramban. The People’s Democratic Party also maintains authority in the valley and select Jammu seats. Kharge has been campaigning aggressively, criticizing the Modi government and warning that with just 20 more seats, the BJP leadership could face consequences in Parliament. He also mocked the party’s previous claims of winning 400 seats, saying it is now stuck at 240 and dependent on coalition partners.

The upcoming elections are shaping up to be highly competitive, with changing seat distributions, voter polarization, and strong campaigns from all major parties. Observers say the results will not only determine the political future of Jammu and Kashmir but could also influence national politics ahead of the next general elections.